I haven't got the slightest idea. And chances are neither do you. The entire subject of how and who is compensated when a barrel of oil is actually extracted on a US government leased parcel seems to be a subject steeped in the mystery equivalent to a major arcana.

I tried the internet, but apparently most experts refuse to answer questions that are:

Hypothetical
"On Average"
Forthcoming from anyone who is not a lease-holder or other principal

Now, I understand how the terms of the original lease will vary one from the other etc., but not having a lifetime to spend on the internet looking for a Good Samaritan to merely explain how the petroleum affected is likely to get to market, to the refinery, to the gas pump-and for how much, I entreat some TV network to run some kind of informative special on the subject. It is so "au rigeur" to currently take endless hours posing the hypothetical question which is the title of the article, and then additional hours on the so-called "poll results." Frankly this is a lot like limiting oneself to asking canines to rate Alpo and then interpreting the results on the basis on whether they walk towards the food-bowl when they are starving.

To me, understanding even the simplest dynamics is of the utmost importance. How does additional drilling on US Federal lands lower our dependance on "foreign" oil, if it makes no difference whether British Petroleum is getting its oil from Alaska or off the coast of Cuba? Point is, is that the case-or not? If the difference is set in minor technicalities, then we are merely dependent on the world petroleum speculators and where the petroleum may originate from is almost completely immaterial.

The US government may lease the lands on our behalf but it neither extracts nor refines any of the resulting product. What do we get back when BP pumps out a barrel of Alaskan oil? A percentage of the market price when the lease was first arranged-say a percentage of $14/bbl?
A percentage of the world market price?

Do we have the right to ask that that oil go directly to us us to satisfy our needs, or is it it merely pooled in with all of BP's other. Even if it stays here, who arranges to choose how or when it is refined? Basically, does the US government have any special control on said petroleum?

Can we drill ourselves out of the energy crisis? It is bad enough when "experts" declare a range of between 3 and 20 years before any of the benefits of new drilling reach us. Not knowing what those benefits actually would be, in terms we can understand, can only reinforce the original response:

We don't have the slightest idea.